Sugarcane Forecasting
Table of Contents
- Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………2
II. Objectives of the Study…………………………………………………………………………………………………………3
III. Methodology……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….3
IV. Presentation of Data……………………………………………………………………………………………………………4
V. Forecasts and Accuracy Testing…………………………………………………………………………………………….6
VI. Summary and Implications……………………………………………………………………………………………..….11
VII. References ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….13
Annexes
List of Tables
Table 1. Forecast Using Naive Method 6
Table 2. Forecast Using Unweighted Moving Average Method 6
Table 3. Forecast Using Weighted Moving Average Method 7
Table 4. Forecast Using Simple Exponential Smoothing Method 8
Table 5. Forecast Using Simple Regression Method 8
Table 6. Naive Forecast 14
Table 7. Moving averages - 1 period moving average 15
Table 8. Moving averages - 3 period moving average 16
Table 9. Moving averages - 5 period moving average 17
Table 10. Moving averages - 7 period moving average 18
Table 11. Moving averages -9 period moving average 19
Table 12. Weighted moving averages - 2 period moving average (Weight: 1, 2) 20
Table 13. Weighted moving averages - 2 period moving average (Weight: 1, 3) 21
Table 14. Weighted moving averages - 2 period moving average (Weight: 2, 5) 22
Table 15. Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average (Weight: 1, 3, 5) 23
Table 16. Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average (Weight: 1, 2, 3) 24
Table 17. Exponential Smoothing at α = 0.01 25
Table 18. Exponential Smoothing at α = 0.1 26
Table 19. Exponential Smoothing at α = 0.2 27
Table 20. Exponential Smoothing at α = 0.3 28
Table 21. Exponential Smoothing at α = 0.7 29
Table 22. Exponential Smoothing at α = 0.9 30
Table 23. Exponential Smoothing at α = 1 31
Table 24. Simple Linear Regression 32
List of Figures
Figure 1. Sugarcane Production in Western Visayas, 1990-2017 4
Figure 2. Production Trend of Sugarcane in Western Visayas 5
Figure 3. Measures of Forecast Accuracy 9
Figure 4. Five-Year Sugarcane Production Forecast 10
I. Introduction
Sugarcane “tubo” is a stout tall perennial grass (Saccharum officinarum) native to tropical southeast Asia that has a large terminal panicle and is widely grown in warm regions as a source of sugar, (Merriam-Webster, 2018).
“Sugarcane is a water-intensive crop that remains in the soil all year long. As one of the world’s thirstiest crops, sugarcane has a significant impact on many environmentally sensitive regions. Historic planting of sugarcane around the world has led to significant impacts on biodiversity. A vast global market for sugarcane derivatives keeps the industry booming. Sugar is prevalent in the modern diet and increasingly a source of biofuels and bioplastics. As prices of petroleum rise, there is a growing market for ethanol from sugarcane (WWF, 2018).”