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Sugarcane Forecasting

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Table of Contents

  1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………2

II. Objectives of the Study…………………………………………………………………………………………………………3

III. Methodology……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….3

IV. Presentation of Data……………………………………………………………………………………………………………4

V. Forecasts and Accuracy Testing…………………………………………………………………………………………….6

VI. Summary and Implications……………………………………………………………………………………………..….11

VII. References ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….13

      Annexes

        List of Tables

Table 1. Forecast Using Naive Method        6

Table 2. Forecast Using Unweighted Moving Average Method        6

Table 3. Forecast Using Weighted Moving Average Method        7

Table 4. Forecast Using Simple Exponential Smoothing Method        8

Table 5. Forecast Using Simple Regression Method        8

Table 6. Naive Forecast        14

Table 7. Moving averages - 1 period moving average        15

Table 8. Moving averages - 3 period moving average        16

Table 9. Moving averages - 5 period moving average        17

Table 10. Moving averages - 7 period moving average        18

Table 11. Moving averages -9 period moving average        19

Table 12. Weighted moving averages - 2 period moving average (Weight: 1, 2)        20

Table 13. Weighted moving averages - 2 period moving average (Weight: 1, 3)        21

Table 14. Weighted moving averages - 2 period moving average (Weight: 2, 5)        22

Table 15. Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average (Weight: 1, 3, 5)        23

Table 16. Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average (Weight: 1, 2, 3)        24

Table 17. Exponential Smoothing at α = 0.01        25

Table 18. Exponential Smoothing at α = 0.1        26

Table 19. Exponential Smoothing at α = 0.2        27

Table 20. Exponential Smoothing at α = 0.3        28

Table 21. Exponential Smoothing at α = 0.7        29

Table 22. Exponential Smoothing at α = 0.9        30

Table 23. Exponential Smoothing at α = 1        31

Table 24. Simple Linear Regression        32

List of Figures

Figure 1. Sugarcane Production in Western Visayas, 1990-2017        4

Figure 2. Production Trend of Sugarcane in Western Visayas        5

Figure 3. Measures of Forecast Accuracy        9

Figure 4. Five-Year Sugarcane Production Forecast        10

I. Introduction

        

        Sugarcane “tubo” is a stout tall perennial grass (Saccharum officinarum) native to tropical southeast Asia that has a large terminal panicle and is widely grown in warm regions as a source of sugar, (Merriam-Webster, 2018).

        “Sugarcane is a water-intensive crop that remains in the soil all year long. As one of the world’s thirstiest crops, sugarcane has a significant impact on many environmentally sensitive regions. Historic planting of sugarcane around the world has led to significant impacts on biodiversity. A vast global market for sugarcane derivatives keeps the industry booming. Sugar is prevalent in the modern diet and increasingly a source of biofuels and bioplastics. As prices of petroleum rise, there is a growing market for ethanol from sugarcane (WWF, 2018).”

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